Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg Preview
Strikeforce is returning to action this Saturday night with their Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg fight card.
What was originally slated to be a truly “stacked” fight card with four Strikeforce title fights, has dwindled to just a “normal” fight card over the past few weeks.
The heavyweight title fight between Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum was cancelled; then Josh Thomson pulled out of his title fight against Gilbert Melendez. Joe Riggs then pulled out of his title fight against Nick Diaz, and just a few days ago, Diaz himself pulled out of the rescheduled fight against Jay Hieron.
The show must go on however, and Scott Coker has done his best to put together some sort of decent fight card for the Showtime audience.
Gina Carano vs. Cristiane Santos – I’ve said it before and it still is true, I simply don’t follow women’s MMA at all and I don’t follow women’s MMA close enough to give a deep analysis of a women’s fight.
However, I have seen both Gina Carano and Cris “Cyborg” fight several times and from what I’ve seen from each fighter, I don’t think Gina Carano stands much of a chance in this matchup. Cyborg has the edge in strength and striking, both with punches and kicks.
It’s hard to know which fighter has the better Muay Thai game. Muay Thai is Carano’s background, but Cyborg’s Muay Thai game is probably equally as good having trained so long in Brazil with the Chute Boxe team.
On the ground, I believe the fight is a push as well. In fact, I doubt this fight will hit the mat at all as both fighters will want to stand and strike. Cyborg Santos just has too much power and too many weapons of the feet for Carano in my book.
The bigger question to me is what happens to women’s MMA after this fight. What’s next? The Carano vs. Cyborg fight is the one “everyone” has been talking about for two years now. Do fans really care about a Cyborg vs. Erin Toughill fight? A Cyborg vs. Tara LaRossa fight?
Personally, unless Gina Carano is involved, I don’t think there is much Strikeforce can do to really hype another women’s fight on the same level. Strikeforce better hope that Cyborg doesn’t rearrange Carano’s face must like Anderson Silva did to Rich Franklin in their first meeting.
Winner: Cristiane Santos
Renato Sobral vs. Gegard Mousasi – Sobral vs. Mousasi is probably the best, most evenly matched fight on this fight card.
Sobral won the Strikeforce light heavyweight title a year ago when he defeated Bobby Southworth via doctor stoppage. “Babalu” has only fought once since then when he defeated Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou via submssion at Affliction: Day of Reckoning.
Gegard Mousasi has been on fire as of late, winning his last 13 fights including winning the 2009 DREAM middleweight grand prix and defeating Mark Hunt at DREAM.9 in the “Super Hulk” Open Weight Grand Prix.
I believe that Mousasi is too good right now for Sobral. Babalu has clearly slowed down as of late and Mousasi is just gearing up in his career. Both fighters should stand and strike early on, but take the fight to the ground sometime in the first round. From there it will be a grappling match, with Mousasi getting the better of Sobral to take the Strikeforce title.
Winner: Gegard Mousasi
Gilbert Melendez vs. Mitsuhiro Ishida – While not the title rematch with Josh Thomson that Gilbert Melendez was looking for, the Strikeforce Interim Lightweight title is on the line as “El Nino” attempts to avenge a past loss to Mitsuhiro Ishida.
Ishida handed Melendez the first loss of his career back on New Year’s Eve 2007. At the time, “El Nino” was 13-0 and thought to be the up-and-coming lightweight star. The loss to Ishida started a period of rebuilding for Melendez as he has flip-flopped wins and losses since then.
Melendez has had a full year since he lost his Strikeforce title to Thomson and looked strong in his comeback fight against Rodrigo Damm back in April. I look for Melendez to keep that furios pace he was known for early on in his career, only now it will be tempered with much more experience and better technical striking.
Ishida is a very tough fighter and has fought some of the top lightweights in the world including Caol Uno, Takanori Gomi, Marcus Aurelio, Vitor Ribeiro and, of course, Gilbert Melendez. Unfortunately for Ishida, the only fighter out of that group he has defeated is Melendez and I don’t see him getting back-to-back victories against “El Nino.”
Winner: Gilbert Melendez
Jay Hieron vs. Jesse Taylor – Jay Hieron has had a busy few months and finally (hopefully) has a definite opponent to fight.
Hieron was scheduled to compete on the Affliction: Trilogy show that was cancelled. When the opportunity to fight Nick Diaz in Strikeforce came up, Hieron jumped at the chance. However, Diaz failed to appear for a drug test and was not licensed for the fight by the California State Athletic Commission. Fortunately, Jesse Taylor was available and Jay Hieron will be able to actually compete.
Taylor just recently fought at DREAM.10 this past July against Dong Sik Yoon. While many MMA fans were expecting a “Dong-bar” victory for Dong Sick Yoon, “JT Money” walked away with the victory after Yoon injured his foot and was unable to continue.
While Taylor is active and can be exciting to watch, he really doesn’t have the experience and skill set that Hieron does. I think this should be an easy victory for “The Thoroughbred” and a good fight to showcase his skills in front of a large audience on Showtime.
Winner: Jay Hieron
Mike Kyle vs. Fabricio Werdum – Fabricio Werdum went through quite an uncertain process for this fight card. While first expecting to fight for the heavyweight title against Alistair Overeem, Werdum saw plans change when Overeem injured his hand in a bar fight and had to withdraw from the matchup.
Strikefoce seemed to be having a tough time finding a replacement to fight Werdum and at one point publicly said that Werdum would not fight on the card at all. Later that same day, Strikeforce reversed their previous statement and announced that MMA veteran Mike Kyle would step in and face Werdum.
Fabricio Werdum enjoyed good success in PrideFC and was widely regarding as one of the top heavyweights in the world at the time. Following the collapse of Pride however, Werdum fell on tough times and struggled through a four-fight UFC career. Werdum last fought in October of 2008 where he was KO’d by Junior dos Santos with a vicious uppercut at UFC 90.
Mike Kyle has always been a mid-level fighter throughout his career and was thought of as a solid heavyweight until his DQ incident at WEC 20. Many in the sport, including myself, wanted to see Kyle banned for his action against Brian Olsen that night. Kyle has since owned up to his action and apologized several times for what took place and is now enjoying a nice three fight winning streak.
Kyle will be a tough test for Werdum. Fabricio still has the skills needed to be a top level fighter, it just comes down to how in shape and how determined he is to get the job done. If the same Werdum shows up that fought Andrei Arlovski, Brandon Vera, and Junior dos Santos then I think Kyle could take this fight. If the Werdum from PrideFC days shows up then it should be a cake walk for Fabricio.
Winner: Fabricio Werdum