Main Card
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua – While I’d like to say this will be a good main event and will be a good matchup, I have a feeling that this fight will fail to deliver.
The fact remains that Mauricio Rua just has not been the same fighter since getting injured in PrideFC and entering the UFC. Compound the injuries with the UFC’s cage and lack of soccer kicks and foot stomps, and the former Pride Grand Prix champion just has not been even close to the same fighter.
Rua is getting his title shot, albeit by default as Rashad Evans and Quinton Jackson both are busy with TUF 10. Unfortunately for Rua, he isn’t getting his title shot against either of those fighters, but against Lyoto Machida instead.
Machida stands undefeated at 15-0 for a reason — because he really is just that good. Machida’s offense and defense improve each time he enters the Octagon, and a fighter like Rua, especially at this stage in his career, just doesn’t have what it takes to defeat “The Dragon.”
Rua does have one thing in his favor however; no one seems to be able to hold onto the belt Chuck Liddell held for so long for more than one fight. In fact, Rampage Jackson is the only light heavyweight to successfully defend the light heavyweight title, and he was only able to do it once. Forest Griffin took it from Jackson, and subsequently lost it in his next fight against Rashad Evans. Evans turned around and lost the belt in his first defense to Lyoto Machida.
Can Rua keep the streak going and hold Machida’s reign to a one-and-done?
I don’t think so.
Winner: Lyoto Machida
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell – I’m not sure how to approach this fight and I’m pretty certain this isn’t a matchup many MMA fans are drooling over.
Velasquez was originally expected to fight Shane Carwin for the No. 1 heavyweight contender spot, but Carwin was awarded a direct title shot against Brock Lesnar instead. Cain’s last fight against Cheick Kongo did little to help his status in the heavyweight rankings, as his decision victory was a poor performance for the standard we have come to expect from Velasquez.
Ben Rothwell is a legitimate mid-level heavyweight, but probably nothing more than that. Rothwell possesses a good striking game and toughness, but his ground game and takedown defense are suspect.
While everyone is looking forward to and expecting a standup brawl, I expect quite the opposite as Cain should look to take the fight to the mat as often as possible in order to guarantee a victory. If the fight stays standing, the result really is up for grabs.
Winner: Cain Velasquez
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer – The matchup between Gleison Tibau and Josh Neer is, in my opinion, the most intriguing matchup on the main card. Both fighters are coming of close decision losses and neither will want to drop another fight and risk an exit from the UFC.
Neer has the definite advantage in the striking game while Tibau has the strong advantage in the takedown and wrestling department. This fight hinges on Tibau’s ability to take Neer down, and Neer’s ability to prevent said takedown.
If Neer can keep the fight standing he can put Tibau away via TKO; if Tibau gets the fight to the mat, look for Tibau to take the decision.
Winner: Gleison Tibau
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher – This fight is a true test for Stevenson’s future in the UFC. A fight he is expected to win without much difficulty, Stevenson could find himself close to an exit with a loss to Fisher.
Spencer Fisher is an exciting fighter, but not one of the most technical. Fisher’s tenacity could prove to be a problem for Stevenson, if “Joe Daddy” once again fails to fall back on his bread-and-butter, the ground game. If Stevenson finally gets his delusions of striking grandeur out of his head and remembers that he is an excellent wrestler, this should be an easy win for Joe.
Winner: Joe Stevenson
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida – I’ve been a big fan of Anthony Johnson for a long time now (and still am), but this fight will go a long way in determining my future hopes for his fight career.
Johnson has looked like an excellent prospect thus far in his UFC career, but a fighter can only go so long as a prospect before they either realize their potential or become just another run-of-the-mill fighter. Johnson’s explosiveness and athleticism are probably as good as it gets in the UFC; now he just needs to find the intellect and proper game-planning to go with that natural talent.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida is a solid fighter but not anywhere near the top of the welterweight division. However, Yoshida does have a solid submission game that could prove trouble for Johnson if he’s not careful.
If Johnson can avoid any early takedowns and keep pressuring Yoshida with his pace and aggressiveness, I think Johnson wins this fight by knockout.
Winner: Anthony Johnson
Undercard
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer – Winner: Ryan Bader
Antoni Hardonk vs. Pat Barry – Winner: Pat Barry
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen – Winner: Yushin Okami
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons – Winner: Rob Kimmons
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan – Winner: Razak Al-Hassan
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley – Winner: Chase Gormley
