Main Card
BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez – Of all BJ Penn’s challengers as lightweight champion, I think Diego Sanchez has the greatest chance of taking the title.
I still think BJ wins this fight, but have to concede that this matchup will be the toughest test BJ has faced as title holder.
Sanchez has good striking power and quick hands that he should be able to put to good use against Penn. Penn has shown throughout his career that he has a chin made of granite and Diego probably knows he can’t look to knock BJ out.
Diego needs to put heavy pressure on BJ and attempt to land as many strikes as possible, both to the head and to the body, in an effort to wear the champion down.
While BJ Penn has improved his conditioning and cardio significantly in his past few fights, that area of his game is still his weakest and we saw GSP wear down Penn and force him to throw in the towel. While Diego is no where as big as GSP, he is a former welterweight and does carry a good amount of muscle.
I look for Penn to attack this fight with the same gameplan he used against Kenny Florian. Penn feels confident that he can stand and trade strikes with anybody, but I think BJ will look to take this fight to the ground sometime during the second round.
Sanchez is a strong wrestler, but BJ’s grappling skills are too good for Diego to defend. I see this fight ending by submission sometime in the third or fourth round.
Winner: BJ Penn
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo – Frank Mir and Cheick Kongo are two heavyweight fighter’s that are almost a liability to the UFC, in my opinion. Both men are solid heavyweights, but neither is truly at the “top of his class” enough to become and remain the heavyweight champion for any period of time.
Kongo has a good striking and kicking game, but his ground game is still completely lacking even after 20 professional fights, including 10 in the UFC.
Frank Mir’s ground game is top notch, and he even has started to show some good signs of improvement on the feet in recent matches. Mir just has never been able to get over the hurdle and become a huge force in the division.
Personally, I’m pretty ambivalent about this matchup and don’t know what the winner really gains out of the matchup. A title shot probably isn’t on the line, and both men will undoubtedly remain with the promotion.
Look for Mir to test the hands early on, but wisen up and submit Kongo for the victory.
Winner: Frank Mir
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce – The training camp for UFC 107 was something of a circus for Jon Fitch. Originally slated to fight Ricardo Almeida, Fitch had to switch to preparing for Thiago Alves when Almedia withdrew. The preparations for Alves were short-lived however, as Alves also pulled out leaving Fitch with a fight against Mike Pierce.
I don’t think the revolving door of opponent’s hurt Fitch’s preparations at all, however, and I don’t expect this fight to be much of a problem for Fitch. While Mike Pierce is a solid fighter and has some decent power in his hands, his matchup here with Fitch is more about finding a way to keep Fitch on the fight card rather than matching up two equal opponents.
Expect Fitch to have his way with Pierce on the ground and win via unanimous decision or submission.
Winner: Jon Fitch
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida – Most MMA fans are looking forward to this lightweight matchup between Kenny Florian and Clay Guida almost as much as the night’s main event.
Both Florian and Guida consistently bring a high-energy gameplan into the Octagon and this fight could be an excellent battle.
Florian recently changed up his training camp and has moved away from Mark Dellegrotte as Sityodtong and it will be interesting to see if the change of scenery has improved Florian’s game at all.
Florian’s striking and Muay Thai game are better than Guida’s, simply because he is the far more accurate and technical striker. Guida should be able to out wrestle Florian on the mat, but Florian has the strong guard game. If Guida can avoid Florian’s guard he should be able to do some damage, but avoiding Florian’s guard isn’t an easy task.
I don’t really see either fighter look to take this fight to the ground however, and I fully expect to see a three round striking battle. If Guida can get in close and frustrate Florian with the clinch in the same way he did to Nate Diaz, then Guida will walk away the victor. If he can’t, look for Florian to win via decision.
Winner: Clay Guida
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve – MMA heavyweight journeyman Paul Buentello gets another crack at the Octagon. Buentello is by no means a top prospec, but is more of a middle-of-the-pack type of heavyweight. Why the UFC chose to bring “The Headhunter” back into the fold, I’m not quite sure, but the matchup against Stefan Struve will prove an interesting one.
Buentello can still pack a solid punch, and should have the easy advantage on the feet if he can figure out a way to contend with Struve’s huge height advantage.
Struve holds the clear advantage on the ground and has a very good submission game for a man of his size. Stefan needs to use his reach advantage to kick and jab in an effort to keep Buentello at a distance. If Buentello is successful at getting in close and starts landing strikes, look for Struve to take the fight to the ground and attempt to work a submission.
I think Buentello is experienced enough and still has good enough power in his hands that he should be able to keep the fight on the feet and win this fight on points.
Winner: Paul Buentello
Undercard
Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia – Winner: Wilson Guiveia
Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson – Winner: Matt Wiman
Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch – Winner: Johny Hendricks
Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares – Winner: Rousimar Palhares
DeMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia – Winner: DeMarques Johnson
Kevin Burns vs. TJ Grant – Winner: Kevin Burns
